In recent weeks, the discussion about the effectiveness of Western sanctions against Russia has increased. Commerzbank strategists come to four main conclusions.
Success or failure?
“Russian sanctions imposed by the EU and other Western countries do not lead to a collapse of the Russian economy. But they can be expected to harm him considerably in the long run. Indicators such as the strength of the RUB do not prove otherwise.
“The first four EU sanctions packages followed the economic logic of maximizing economic damage to the targeted country with minimum damage to the sanctioning countries. The fact that the EU has nevertheless experienced a deterioration in terms of trade, while the effect on Russia’s terms of trade is ambiguous, is not due to sanctions but to increased insecurity in the EU. ‘supply.
“With the sixth sanctions package, the EU has deviated from its previous path. The objective of this package was to reduce the effectiveness of Russian counter-sanctions as political leverage. This objective cannot be fully achieved, as a balance must be found between this objective and the economic damage within the EU.
“Sanctions may not stop the invasion of Ukraine. But even then, they create strong signaling effects.