Future world order depends on outcome of Russian-Ukrainian war: political scientist

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TEHRAN — A political studies professor at the University of Ottawa says the war in Ukraine will determine the fate of the world order.

“The war in Ukraine would determine not only the future of Ukraine but also the future world order,” Ivan Katchanovski told the Tehran Times.

“The future world order depends on the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war,” notes Katchanovski.

Katchanovski, who was a visiting scholar at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, believes Moscow could challenge the US-led world order by invading client state Ukraine. the United States.

“The West could have prevented this war by offering Ukraine EU membership prospects in exchange for neutrality and implementation of the Minsk agreement.” “While Western countries followed the United States in opposing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many countries in Asia, the Middle East (Western Asia), Africa and Latin America remained neutral or, in some cases, even supported Russia to varying degrees,” Katchanovski adds. .

He says, “Such a global divide could be a sign of a new multipolar world order that may emerge as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war.”

Here is the text of the interview:

Q: How do you assess the war in Ukraine? Are you expecting a nuclear shock?

A: The Russian-Ukrainian war was not inevitable and could have been avoided or prevented by Russia, Ukraine and the West. Russia launched this war of choice, which is illegal under international law. Putin justified the Russian invasion on the basis of false allegations of Ukraine joining NATO, which was actually unlikely in the foreseeable future, the genocide of ethnic Russians in the Donbass, the development of nuclear weapons by Ukraine and power-sharing by the Nazis in Ukraine. Zelensky failed to prevent the Ukraine-Russia conflict from escalating into a devastating war by denying that the possibility of a Russian invasion was real. He abandoned the Minsk Accords to end the civil war in Donbass and his election promises and pursued NATO membership and nationalist policies in Ukraine. Western countries could have prevented this war by offering Ukraine the prospect of EU membership in exchange for neutrality and the implementation of the Minsk agreement. They also supported the violent overthrow of the Ukrainian government that sparked this conflict, which could have escalated into a Russian-Ukrainian war already in 2014 and was significantly escalated by Russia this year when it launched the war in Ukraine. Possibility.

After its apparent failure of regime change in Ukraine or its attempts to force Zelensky to sign a peace deal largely on Russian terms, Russia is now aiming to encircle Ukrainian forces in the Donbass and annex other parts of the country. ‘East and South it has already taken or intends to take. taken by military force. The use of nuclear weapons by Russia in Ukraine or a nuclear war between NATO and Russia is extremely unlikely.

Q: Biden said the United States will not send Ukrainian rockets that can reach Russia. What are the implications of such a decision?

“Sanctions are not effective in changing the policies of Russia and various other countries on issues they consider crucial.”A: Biden’s decision not to provide long-range rockets that can hit targets relatively deep inside Russia is to prevent the launching of such US weapons by Ukrainian forces against targets in Russia. Russia publicly threatens to retaliate militarily if such attacks by American weapons take place in Russia. Ukraine already has similar Soviet-style multiple rocket launchers and Tochka-U missiles that can hit Russia. So far, Ukrainian forces have used artillery, helicopters and drones to attack weapons and oil storage facilities and shell sites in areas neighboring Russia.

Q: What are the consequences of the sanctions on Russia? Do you think the sanction can change Moscow’s policy in Ukraine?

A: Economic sanctions have had a long-term negative effect on the Russian economy. But such sanctions are not effective in changing the policies of Russia and various other countries on issues they consider crucial. Threats of such economic sanctions did not prevent the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and their imposition did not prevent Russia from waging war in Ukraine.

Q: Do you predict that other European states will be engaged in war against Ukraine?

A: The leaders of NATO and EU countries have publicly stated that they will not deploy troops to Ukraine in combat roles and that they will not create or enforce a no-fly zone in Ukraine. Ukraine, because that would mean a real possibility of war with nuclear Russia. Russia has publicly threatened to use military force against the Polish army if it were deployed in western Ukraine, even on a humanitarian or peacekeeping mission, or if Poland or other countries were trying to create a no-fly zone in western Ukraine.

Q: How could the war in Ukraine change the world order?

A: The war in Ukraine would determine not only the future of Ukraine but also the future world order. The future world order depends on the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Russia openly defied the US-led world order by invading Ukraine, which is a US client state. While Western countries followed the United States in opposing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America remained neutral or, in some cases even supported Russia to varying degrees. Such a global divide could be a sign of a new multipolar world order that could emerge as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

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